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reference-class-forecasting

Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.

lyndonkl
maintainer
lyndonkl
Обновлено 12/16/2025
Звёзды
11
Форки
2
quick start

Installation and usage

Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.

Установка
$ install --globalskills.sh
Использование

После установки вы можете использовать этот skill, выполнив следующую команду в терминале:

skills use reference-class-forecasting