production-forecaster
Forecast oil & gas well production using decline curve analysis. Use for EUR estimation, type curve generation, production modeling, and reserve calculations with Arps decline models (exponential, hyperbolic, harmonic).
tracking-signals
Retrieves insider trading data and company news via Financial Datasets API. Use when asked about insider buys/sells, Form 4 filings, executive transactions, or company news.
factor-risk-adversarial-simulator
Institutional-grade management of systemic risk, hidden correlations, and black-swan stress testing.
advanced-math-tradingmicrostructure-game
Game theory, network/systemic risk views, queueing/order-book, exchange notes.
longitudinal-drift-detector
Detect behavioral drift and alignment degradation over time.
advanced-math-tradingoptimization-advanced
Advanced optimization for trading: OCO, multi-objective, DRO, MIP, Bayesian opt, plus convex/Markowitz/BL references.
elo-ratings-math
Explains the mathematical principles behind Elo rating systems, including expected score calculation, rating updates, and the K-factor. Use when implementing or understanding competitive rating systems.
explore-approach
Prototype and explore technical approaches. Use when (1) multiple valid technical approaches exist, (2) performance characteristics unknown, (3) implementation path unclear, (4) need evidence-based technical recommendation.
controllable-inputs-framework
Focus on Input Metrics (selection, price, speed) rather than Output Metrics (revenue, stock price). Inputs are controllable and causal; outputs are lagging. Amazon's flywheel philosophy.
thinking-in-bets
Use when asked to "thinking in bets", "make decisions under uncertainty", "think probabilistically", "avoid resulting", "separate decision quality from outcomes", or "reduce bias in decisions". Helps make explicit bets and evaluate decisions on process, not results. The Thinking in Bets framework (from Annie Duke) applies poker strategy to business and life decisions.
nixtla-uncertainty-quantifier
Quantifies prediction uncertainty using conformal prediction. Use when risk assessment, scenario planning, or decision-making under uncertainty is required. Trigger with "quantify uncertainty", "generate prediction intervals", "confidence bands".
nixtla-polymarket-analyst
Analyzes Polymarket prediction market contracts and forecasts price movements using TimeGPT. Activates when analyzing prediction markets, forecasting contract outcomes, or evaluating market sentiment. Triggers on: "Polymarket analysis", "predict contract odds", "forecast prediction market".
credit-risk
Assess credit risk and default probability for bonds using credit spreads, rating transitions, and recovery analysis. Requires numpy>=1.24.0, pandas>=2.0.0, scipy>=1.10.0. Use when evaluating corporate bonds, analyzing credit events, estimating default probabilities, or managing credit portfolio risk.
alpha-forensics-decay-scout
Institutional-grade monitoring of alpha exhaustion, execution capacity, and regime drift.
idea-validator
Evaluate app ideas with brutal honesty before investing time building them. Use when assessing new product concepts or deciding whether an idea is worth pursuing.
sade-chocolate-analiz
Sade Chocolate için dünya çikolata trendlerini araştırır, pazar analizi yapar ve stratejik tavsiyelerde bulunur. /sade-chocolate-analiz komutu ile veya "trend analizi", "pazar araştırması", "rakip analizi", "çikolata trendleri" denildiğinde kullanılır.
market-data
Fetches real-time and historical stock market data from authorized APIs including prices, fundamentals, news, and economic data
zrl-walk-forward
This skill should be used when performing walk-forward analysis and out-of-sample testing for strategy validation. It provides frameworks for rolling window optimization, anchored walk-forward, and regime-based validation to assess strategy robustness.
covered-call
Implement covered call options strategy for income generation on long stock positions. Use when seeking to enhance returns through option premium collection while maintaining stock ownership. Covers structure, risk management, Greeks analysis, execution mechanics, and regulatory compliance for covered call writing programs.
stock-picker
Screens and selects stocks based on customizable quantitative criteria including value, growth, quality, and momentum factors
gardening-mindset
Use when dealing with ecosystems, network effects, or high-uncertainty environments where the right answer cannot be known in advance, when rigid planning consumes more value than it creates
shortening-feedback-loops
Use when decisions seem to require years to evaluate, when hiding behind long-term vision to avoid accountability, or when struggling to learn from venture/product bets in real-time
trade-study-analysis
Conduct systematic trade study analyses using the DAU 9-Step Trade Study Process. Guides engineers through problem definition, root cause analysis (5 Whys, Fishbone), data collection from alternatives and datasheets, normalization calculations, weighted scoring, sensitivity analysis, and professional report generation with visualizations and decision matrices. Use when evaluating alternatives, comparing solutions, conducting trade-offs, or making engineering decisions.
